On the validity of the German risk assessment tool "Risk for Recidivism in Sexual Offenders"

The Risk for Recidivism in Sexual Offenders (RRS) procedure is an actuarial risk assessment tool designed to predict recidivism in sexual offenders released from prison. So far it is the only tool developed with a German sample and uses a combination of 11 static and dynamic risk markers. The goal of the current study was to test the predictive validity of the 3 RRS prognostic scores in a sample of 104 sexual offenders whose prison files and recidivism data were analysed after a mean period of 8 years after release from a German prison. The H-score of the RRS developed to assess the probability of reimprisonment showed moderate to good predictive power in relation to any new convictions, new convictions leading to a prison term and new convictions for an aggressive or sexual criminal offence. As expected it was not able to predict sexual recidivism which had a base rate of 8.7% in this sample. The S-score and the K-score of the RRS developed to predict this criterion, performed hardly better in this task. These scores showed moderate to good predictive validity only in the small subsample of extrafamilial sexual offenders.