A modelling framework for the forecasting of energy consumption and CO2 emissions at local/regional level

Building appropriate scenarios for the elaboration of Sustainable Energy Action Plans, within the framework of the Covenant of Mayors, is a complex task. One major question to be addressed is whether the selected combination of examined measures and actions is considered enough for the local authorities to achieve their long-term target of CO2 emissions reduction. The proposed decision support model aims to address this issue, by enabling the elaboration of long-term scenarios of energy consumption and CO2 emissions at local/regional level. The Delphi method is appropriately applied for embracing experts' judgements. Moreover, an overall algorithm for the future scenarios ('BAU Scenario', 'Economic Prosperity Scenario' and 'Economic Recession Scenario') is introduced, along with a corresponding computerised software. The system's pilot application to a Greek community is presented and discussed. The proposed approach could support the decision-making process for the elaboration of Sustainable Energy Action Plan within the Covenant of Mayors.