Performance of the FMA fire hazard index at Chapada dos Guimaraes-MT national park

The objective of this study was to analyze the performance of the Monte Alegre Formula (FMA) in the National Park of Chapada dos Guimardes (PNCG) from 2005 to 2014. The meteorological data used to calculate the AMF were obtained from the historical database of the Institute National Meteorological Service (INMET), of the meteorological station located in the city of Cuiaba. Of the 3,650 days evaluated, the null and small hazard classes occurred on average 52.97%, while the medium, high and very high hazard classes occurred on average at 47.23%. It was observed that the index predicted a higher number of days concentrated in the "null" classes, indicating that the formula needs to be adjusted in the hazard classes of the index. The value obtained for the skill score was 0.0333 and the success percentage presented a value of 54.22. It was observed that of the 23,737,76 ha burned, 98.63% were burned when the index presented a very high degree of danger. Despite the need for adjustments, the FMA performed well, with 67.41% of the fires occurring on days when the index indicated the "very high" hazard class, demonstrating that the formula can be adopted as a fire prevention subsidy forest in the park.