Price Discovery in the Treasury-Bill When-Issued Market

When-issued (i. e., forward) trading in T-bills yet to be auctioned provides a unique environment for examining price discovery. Because T-bills are auctioned in a sealed-bid process, when-issued traders cannot observe the spot market price. Yet the forward price must ultimately converge on the auction outcome price. Our results indicate that traders in the whenissued market ''discover" the ultimate auction price. Little evidence is found that standard order flow variables contribute to price discovery. Instead, the ability to observe a few trades with relatively small volume in the when-issued market is sufficient to discover the auction price resulting from the sealed-bid process.