ESTIMATING CHANGES IN RECREATIONAL FISHING PARTICIPATION FROM NATIONAL WATER-QUALITY POLICIES

The complete evaluation of the offsite effects of national policies or programs that affect levels of agricultural nonpoint source pollution requires linking extensive water quality changes to changes in recreational activity. A sequential decision model is specified to describe an individual's decisions about fishing. A participation model for recreational fishing that includes a water quality index reflecting regional water quality is developed and estimated as a logit model with national level data. A visitation model for those who decide to fish that also includes the water quality index is estimated using ordinary least squares. The water quality index is found to be significant in the participation model but not in the visitation model. Together, the two models provide a means of estimating how changes in water quality might influence the number of recreation days devoted to fishing. The model is used to estimate changes in fishing participation for the Conservation Reserve Program.