The Day-ahead Energy Market Forecasting in Russian Federation: a Case Study of Siberia

Recent reforms in Russian power industry and the wholesale electric power and capacity market construction put energy companies into the new competitive conditions. Due to these reforms, the issues of price and quantity forecasting at the day-ahead market (DAM) gain special importance. Particularly, the extrapolated values of the prices and quantities at DAM are necessary for the regulator, and also for energy companies to work out the best market strategy. The current Russian wholesale electricity market represents a fundamentally new model of the electric power industry that functions on a competitive basis. The key role in the structure of the wholesale energy trading sector is played by the day-ahead electricity sector that provides up to the 80% of total electricity sales in the country. As a result of the auction clearing, the market price for all points in the supply of electricity is formed and the volume of the market is determined. There is also a need for forecasting the equilibrium price and quantity of electricity sales, which largely determine the strategies of generation companies from the perspective of the use of free electric powers. This paper proposes a method of construction of medium and long-term forecasting of the DAM's main characteristics. Our results that stem from the mathematical model and statistical data reveal the most significant factors and quantified their nature, their extent as well as their effect on the energy market of Siberia.