DOES THE THREAT OF BORDER APPREHENSION DETER UNDOCUMENTED UNITED-STATES IMMIGRATION

The study explores whether US Border Patrol enforcement actively discourages undocumented migration at its source. Two models are compared. One includes such familiar determinants of undocumented migration as relative economic conditions between the US and Mexico, the size of the Mexican young-adult population, and implementation of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act. An alternative model relates the magnitude of undocumented migration to lagged monthly values of estimated apprehension probabilities, on the assumption that migrants form expectations about the apprehension risks they will face on the basis of experiences of other recent undocumented migrants. The study shows not only that both models have some explanatory power, but also that the influence of perceived risks of apprehension all but disappears when both sets of predictor variables are combined into a single model. Border control policies may exert a broader deterrent influence. -Author