MODELLING DOMESTIC AIR TRANSPORT DEMAND AND EVALUATING UNDER SCENARIOS

The lack of balance and integration between transportation modes in Turkey is one of the main problems. In this study, domestic air transport demand is modeled and evaluated under scenarios. For this purpose, indexing method which is able to indicate observed monthly and seasonal variations in demand is used. Proposals are suggested in order to overcome the lack of balance between transportation modes. In modeling, purchasing power parity and jet fuel prices as independent variables are used. Results showed that the developed model using indexing method is substantially sensitive to observed monthly and seasonal variations in domestic air transport demand. Furthermore, in the event that there are optimistic an increase in the income level and a crawl in the jet fuel prices, domestic air transport can rival with railways for second place in the transportation modes behind highways. For this reason, it is considered regulation on wages policy and tax of jet fuel prices necessary to support development of domestic air transport demand.