A Lost Cause Recouped: Peace Enforcement and State-Building in Somalia

A constitutional convention with representation from clan elders adopted a new constitution for Somalia on 1 August 2012, which paved the way for the election of a federal parliament and a new president of the Federal Republic of Somalia. This article examines two opposing explanations for this progress in a country long dismissed as a lost cause. Bottom-up stability, with grassroots equilibrium, is argued to be more likely to bring representation and renewal. The counter-hypothesis emphasizes security from the top down as more likely to lead to representation and renewal. Both hypotheses are evaluated here based on peacebuilding theory and evidence from Somalia and other relevant cases, including Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This review concludes that top-down security was possible and desirable in Somalia, paving the way for continued security efforts and stability work. The strategy of the African Union, European Union, and United States - supporting Burundi, Kenya, and Uganda with high-salience peace enforcement in Somalia - succeeded in bringing greater top-down security. The article explains that a combination of international assistance and training and increased combat effectiveness forced Al Shabaab out of Mogadishu and other urban centres. Western governments and international organizations continue to pursue top-down security as the best hope for ending war and restoring peace in Somalia. Top-down security, if properly implemented, can pave the way for bottom-up stability efforts and renewal and representation in Somalia, Africa, and elsewhere.