FORECAST SCENARIOS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTERNAL CONSUMER MARKET OF ORGANIC PRODUCTS IN UKRAINE

The article is devoted to substantiation of the forecast scenarios of development of the internal consumer organic products market in Ukraine. The essence of organic agriculture as a complete system and management of agro-ecosystems, including the assessment of environmental threats and risks of environmental safety in the agricultural sector, and establishes the relationship between economic actors in the agricultural organic production. The current state and trends of the main indicators of organic agriculture development in Ukraine are analyzed. Taking into account probable economic changes and possible variants of the transformation of market conditions, we have grounded three basic adaptation scenarios for the development of domestic organic agriculture for the future: inertial, moderate and innovative. The prognostic model of indices of the internal consumer market of organic produce is suggested, which provides for their modeling based on multiple regression. The study of trends and the calculation of predictive values of independent variables of the model for the near future are based on the extrapolation method. Based on the model data of organic farming, a forecast of the internal consumer market in this area for the period up to 2022 has been made. The use of the proposed model will enable the formation of credible prospect balances of demand and supply on the organic market, depending on the factors of influence and scenarios of its development.