Model-based Estimation of Poverty Risk in the Federal States

Poverty estimates for Austria and the European Union are based on EU-SILC, a yearly conducted household survey. The direct (design-based) estimator provides reliable estimates on national level, but can perform poorly for regions and sub-populations. We discuss and apply alternative (model-based) estimation for Austria on NUTS-2 level (Bundeslander). Using variables that are available in both the labor force survey (LFS) as well as EU-SILC, a social stratification model is constructed by labor force participation and other household characteristics. Parameter estimates for poverty risks are obtained with the EU-SILC data by a logistic regression model and the predicted values then applied to the larger LFS sample.