DETERMINANTS OF THE AVOIDANCE OF WAR DURING THE COLD-WAR AND THEREAFTER - NUCLEAR DETERRENCE, DEMOCRACY, AND FREE-TRADE

Extended nuclear deterrence avoided war between East and West in the cold war period. Democracy and Pax Americana avoided war in the democratic core area of the West. The East was pacified by Pax Sovietica. These propositions are supported by a simple quantitative test. With the end of the cold war, the structural barriers against international conflict have become much weaker. If it were possible to stabilize democracy in all of Eastern Europe, especially in Russia, then Pax Democratica could substitute for Pax Atomica and Pax Sovietica. Whether democratic stabilization is possible, depends primarily on events within Eastern Europe, but there are reasons to anticipate that the West will not effectively aid the East to generate the economic prerequisite for a stable democracy, because of domestic and social welfare concerns. To stabilize Eastern democracy, the West should unilaterally open its markets for Eastern (and Southern) products.