Impact of climate change on the productivity of grain crops in the region of Beja (Tunisia)

This article analyzes the potential impact of climate change on cereal productivity in the Beja region of northwestern Tunisia. Multiple regression models were estimated for the cereal crops durum wheat, bread wheat and barley, using annual data from 1980 to 2009. The yield of each crop was used as the dependent variable, while the explanatory variables were mainly related to the climate (precipitation and temperature) and technological progress. The results show that yield variability is affected by climate and technological progress variables. The projected climate change scenarios predicted by the HadCM3 model will have a significant effect on crop yields by 2030, particularly for bread wheat. Some adaptation strategies that could alleviate climate change effects on cereal crops yields in the long run are the identification of new agricultural practices in this area, the widespread diffusion of varieties that can tolerate rainfall shortage during the critical periods, and the adoption of early maturing varieties.