Meat and Milk Consumption 2050: the Potential for Demand-side Solutions to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction

The contribution of meat consumption to global warming is discussed. The IPCC Climate Change 2014 report recognised that meat demand oriented measures could contribute to GHG mitigation, though by excluding meat market adjustments it overstated the potential. Results are presented from a partial equilibrium model of global meat and milk sectors which examines the impact of projected population and economic growth on global meat consumption for the major regions of the world to 2050. A range of market and policy scenarios linked to meat demand reduction are then analysed, especially for ruminant meats which have the highest GHG emissions intensities. These scenarios include the impact of a continuing long-term downward trend in red meat consumption in developed economies, impacts of carbon taxes on meat demand, and reductions in GHG emissions intensities for all meats. The modelling projects a 21 per cent increase in global per capita meat consumption and a 63 per cent increase in global meat consumption and GHG emissions without any mitigation measures. Mitigation scenarios, however, only generate a maximum 22 per cent reduction in total livestock and a 26 per cent reduction in ruminant global emissions relative to the Baseline 2050 projection, still well above base period 2010 emission levels.