China automotive energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions outlook to 2050

被引:28
|
作者
Lyu, Chuanjun [1 ]
Ou, Xunmin [1 ]
Zhang, Xiliang [1 ]
机构
[1] Tsinghua Univ, China Automot Energy Res Ctr, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Automotive energy; Greenhouse gas mitigation; Technology innovation; Public policy; China; ROAD TRANSPORT; DEMAND;
D O I
10.1007/s11027-014-9620-1
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Energy security and climate change are topics of primary interest in current Chinese policy debates about the international politics, economy, and environment. In the ongoing process of modernization, China will continue to face challenges to provide secure energy supplies and mitigate climate change over time. Given the size of the country, the development and consumption of future energy supplies will have a substantial impact on global energy markets and the local environment and implications for global climate change. China is currently one of the fastest growing regions in the global automobile market and is the world's largest automobile market. As a result, automotive energy has become a core energy and environmental issue for the country. The purpose of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the dynamics of automotive energy development in China in a systematic way by examining the interactions of economics, technology, and policy. The analysis and paper offers an overview of recent automotive energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China. Two alternative energy scenarios, business as usual (BAU) and integrated policy scenario (IPS), were developed using the Tsinghua China Automotive Energy Model (TCAEM). The two scenarios depict two possible trajectories of automotive energy consumption and GHG emissions out to 2050. These reveal important implications for technology innovation and policy intervention, which are discussed in the context of China developing a sustainable automotive energy industry.
引用
收藏
页码:627 / 650
页数:24
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