A LOGIT MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE DAILY OCCURRENCE OF HUMAN CAUSED FOREST-FIRES

被引：161
|
作者：
VEGA GARCIA, C [1 ]
WOODARD, PM [1 ]
TITUS, SJ [1 ]
ADAMOWICZ, WL [1 ]
LEE, BS [1 ]
机构：
[1] UNIV ALBERTA, DEPT FOREST SCI, EDMONTON, AB T6G 2H, CANADA
来源：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE | 1995年 / 5卷 / 02期
关键词：
PREDICTION; LOGIT MODEL; ALBERTA; CANADA; FIRE OCCURRENCE; HUMAN-CAUSED;
D O I：
10.1071/WF9950101
中图分类号：
S7 [林业];
学科分类号：
0829 ; 0907 ;
摘要：
The logit model was used to predict the number of fire-days in the Whitecourt Forest of Alberta. The database used included fire (1) and no-fire (0) observations for fire season days between April and October for the 1986 through 1990 period. There were 8,009 observations during this period of which 157 were fire observations. Using four variables, we were able to predict 79.0% of the fire-days and 81.5% of the no-fire-days. The model, Z(i)=-8.5171+7.6590xAREA(i)+0.7367xDISTRICT(i)+2.0478xBUI(i)+3.9563xISI(i), failed to predict 37 of the fire-days and produced 29 ''false alarms''. When this model was tested on fire occurrence data from the Whitecourt Forest for 1991 and 1992 fire seasons it was correct 74.1% of the time. The management implications and limitations of this study are also discussed in this paper.
引用
收藏
页码：101 / 111
页数：11
相关论文
共 43 条
  • [21] Environmental susceptibility model for predicting forest fire occurrence in the Western Ghats of India
    Renard, Quentin
    Pelissier, Raphael
    Ramesh, B. R.
    Kodandapani, Narendran
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE, 2012, 21 (04) : 368 - 379
  • [22] Lightning-caused fires in Central Spain: Development of a probability model of occurrence for two Spanish regions
    Nieto, Hector
    Aguado, Inmaculada
    Garcia, Mariano
    Chuvieco, Emilio
    AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, 2012, 162 : 35 - 43
  • [23] Predicting the Potential Impact of Climate Change on People-Caused Forest Fire Occurrence in South Korea
    Lee, Si-Young
    Chae, Hee Mun
    Park, Gwan-Soo
    Ohga, Shoji
    JOURNAL OF THE FACULTY OF AGRICULTURE KYUSHU UNIVERSITY, 2012, 57 (01): : 17 - 25
  • [24] Integrating Meteorological Dynamic Data and Historical Data into a Stochastic Model for Predicting Forest Fires Risk Maps
    Durao, Rita
    Soares, Amilcar
    GEOENV VII - GEOSTATISTICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL APPLICATIONS, 2010, 16 : 77 - 88
  • [25] Predicting Daily Urban Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations Using a Random Forest Model
    Brokamp, Cole
    Jandarov, Roman
    Hossain, Monir
    Ryan, Patrick
    ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, 2018, 52 (07) : 4173 - 4179
  • [26] Human impacts on fire occurrence: a case study of hundred years of forest fires in a dry alpine valley in Switzerland
    Zumbrunnen, Thomas
    Menendez, Patricia
    Bugmann, Harald
    Conedera, Marco
    Gimmi, Urs
    Buergi, Matthias
    REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, 2012, 12 (04) : 935 - 949
  • [27] Human impacts on fire occurrence: a case study of hundred years of forest fires in a dry alpine valley in Switzerland
    Thomas Zumbrunnen
    Patricia Menéndez
    Harald Bugmann
    Marco Conedera
    Urs Gimmi
    Matthias Bürgi
    Regional Environmental Change, 2012, 12 : 935 - 949
  • [28] Historic distribution and driving factors of human-caused fires in the Chinese boreal forest between 1972 and 2005
    Guo, Futao
    Innes, John L.
    Wang, Guangyu
    Ma, Xiangqing
    Sun, Long
    Hu, Haiqing
    Su, Zhangwen
    JOURNAL OF PLANT ECOLOGY, 2015, 8 (05) : 480 - 490
  • [29] Modelling effects of human-caused fires on rill detachment capacity based on surface burning of soils in forest lands
    Parhizkar, Misagh
    Cerda, Artemio
    JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2023, 624
  • [30] A new multivariate model for predicting daily energy expenditure in active human populations
    Ocobock, C.
    Pontzer, H.
    Gookin, J.
    Baynes, S.
    INTEGRATIVE AND COMPARATIVE BIOLOGY, 2011, 51 : E102 - E102
12345