Waves of El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemics

Influenza pandemics has occurred at irregular intervals for over 500 years, unlike seasonal influenza epidemics which occur annually. Although the risk factors are known, the basis for the timing of influenza pandemic waves are unknown. Coherence of peaks of El Nino and influenza pandemic in 2009-2010, however, suggest that both waves are coupled. This study was done to determine the relation of influenza pandemics to the peaks and waveforms of El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO). ENSO cycles from 1871 to 2015 which had El Nino phases were windowed from Multivariate El Nino Index. Influenza pandemic peaks were mapped to ENSO monthly time series. ENSO waveforms were compared graphically, and fitted to non-stationary cosinor models. Second order polynomial regression model was fitted to the peak and duration of El Nino. Agglomerative hierarchical cluster of ENSO waveforms was performed. All influenza pandemic peaks mapped to El Nino peaks, with lags of 0-5 months. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics share parameters of oscillation. Non-stationary cosinor models showed that ENSO cycles are complex waves. There was second order polynomial relationship between peak and duration of El Ninos, p < 0.0001. ENSO waveforms clustered into four distinct groups. ENSO waveforms during influenza pandemics of 1889-1900, 1957-1958, and 1968-1969 linked closely. ENSO indices were significantly high from 7 to 16 months after onset of cycles, p < 0.0001. Global reduction of precipitation by El Ninos of certain spatial and temporal evolution promote aerosol transmission and survival of novel influenza A viruses. Surveillance for El Nino events to forecast periods of maximal transmission and survival of influenza A viruses is, therefore, crucial for public health control strategies.