Risk assessment in acute non-variceal upper GI bleeding: the AIMS65 score in comparison with the Glasgow-Blatchford score in a Scottish population

Introduction The early use of risk stratification scores is recommended for patients presenting with acute non-variceal upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeds (ANVGIB). AIMS65 is a novel, recently derived scoring system, which has been proposed as an alternative to the more established Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS). Objective To validate the AIMS65 scoring system in a predominantly Caucasian population from Scotland and compare it with the GBS. Design Retrospective study of patients presenting to a district general hospital in Scotland with a suspected diagnosis of ANVGIB who underwent inpatient upper GI endoscopy between March 2008 and March 2013. Outcomes The primary outcome measure was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcome measures were requirement for endoscopic intervention, endoscopy refractory bleeding, blood transfusion, rebleeding and admission to high dependency unit (HDU) and intensive care unit (ICU). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated for each score. Results 328 patients were included. Of these 65.9% (n=216) were men and 34.1% (n=112) women. The mean age was 65.2 years and 30-day mortality 5.2%. AIMS65 was superior to the GBS in predicting mortality, with an AUROC of 0.87 versus 0.70 (p<0.05). The GBS was superior for blood transfusion (AUROC 0.84 vs 0.62, p<0.05) and admission to HDU (AUROC 0.73 vs 0.62, p<0.05). There were no significant differences between the scores with respect to requirement for endoscopic intervention, endoscopy refractory bleeding, rebleeding and admission to ICU. Conclusions AIMS65 accurately predicted mortality in a Scottish population of patients with ANVGIB. Large prospective studies are now required to establish the exact role of AIMS65 in triaging patients with ANVGIB.