FOREST MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES THAT ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES

This paper presents a method to calculate the long-term effects of forest management decisions for an age-structured forest. The calculation of such effects is required to assess the sustainability and indeed the rationality of forest harvesting strategies. The primary focus of this paper is the issue of ''falldown'', i.e., the decrease in timber available for harvesting due to lack of large old trees. The largest net discounted economic returns are obtained by rapid harvesting (mining) of old growth. However, in the longer term the consequences of a decrease in harvest volume on local communities can be devastating. How can this conflict between short-term and long-term interests be reconciled? I consider a variety of strategies that vary in their sensitivity to the effects of falldown, and I present some pilot calculations that illustrate a method to weigh the consequences of following these strategies.