LINEAR-REGRESSION FORECASTING IN THE PRESENCE OF AR(1) DISTURBANCES

This paper is concerned with time-series forecasting based on the linear regression model in the presence of AR(1) disturbances. The standard approach is to estimate the AR(1) parameter, rho, and then construct forecasts assuming the estimated value is the true value. We introduce a new approach which can be viewed as a weighted average of predictions assuming different values of rho. The weights are proportional to the marginal likelihood of rho. A Monte Carlo experiment was conducted to compare the new method with five more conventional predictors. Its results suggest that the new approach has a distinct edge over existing procedures.