EDUCATIONAL-POLICY, EMPLOYMENT PROGNOSES, AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ON THE LABOR-MARKET

A dynamic forecast model for the labour market is presented Employment and unemployment by education and training and the distribution of trained labour among industries are determined endogenously with overall demand by industry given exogenously (from the macroeconomic model ADAM). Supply of labour by training is derived from a demographic model including flows in the educational system. The basic assumption is that changes in mismatch between demand and supply of trained labour by education lead to changes in employment by education. Employers short of labour by any specific education look for substitutes with alternative educations, while unemployed educational groups, unable to find traditional employment in traditional industries (for their type of education) seek untraditional jobs.