Delphi expert panels in the scenario-based strategic planning of agriculture

被引:27
|
作者
Rikkonen, Pasi [1 ]
Kaivo-oja, Jari [2 ]
Aakkula, Jyrki [3 ]
机构
[1] Agrifood Res Finland, Econ Res MTTL, MTT, Helsinki, Finland
[2] Finland Futures Res Ctr, Helsinki, Finland
[3] Univ Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
来源
FORESIGHT | 2006年 / 8卷 / 01期
基金
芬兰科学院;
关键词
Agriculture; Delphi method; Forecasting; Generation and dissemination of information; Strategic planning; Finland;
D O I
10.1108/14636680610647156
中图分类号
TU98 [区域规划、城乡规划];
学科分类号
0814 ; 082803 ; 0833 ;
摘要
Purpose - This article seeks to present approaches on the utilisation of expert information in strategic planning practices. Design/methodology/approach - The article emphasises alternative scenario development for the bases of decision making. This is done through an evaluation of Delphi studies and their feasibility for scenario construction. As an application of the information processes, both narrow and broad expert information processes are presented as alternative sources for solutions in public sector strategic planning. Findings - Basically, there are two alternative ways to utilise Delphi studies in strategic planning and decision making: a broad expert information process (BEIP) model; and a narrow expert information process (NEIP) model. Practical implications - As a broad process, an example is presented of the alternative future outcomes and the argumentation around it in the share of genetically modified plant varieties in commercial farming in Finland. Originality/value - This theoretical review contributes to the discussions of the linkages between the use of expert information, the scenario planning and the strategic planning processes.
引用
收藏
页码:66 / +
页数:17
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