STOCHASTICITY IN THE IMAGE GREENHOUSE MODEL

The potential impacts of climate change are a major issue in the Greenhouse debate. Various models, and particularly IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect), are being used by the IPCC to investigate climate change. The IMAGE model has been reduced to a system of differential equations and incorporates various initial conditions and model parameters. These initial conditions and parameter values are not known precisely and are subject to variability of various forms. This paper briefly describes the mathematical form of IMAGE and then investigates the stochastic properties of the model. Particular attention is paid to the propagation and amplification of assumed distributions for the initial conditions and certain key physical parameters. The IMAGE model appears to be quite robust with respect to these stochastic characteristics.