Impact of WTO's New Round of Negotiations on Thai Agriculture

This article analyzes the economic impact of WTO negotiations on Thai agricultural sector. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was formulated to predict the national economic gains and losses and the structural changes that may occur in the agricultural sector. The results show that the existing agenda for the negotiations would be unfavorable to Thailand's balance of trade. A slight expansion of GDP could be expected due to an increase in government spending. In contrast, private investment and household consumption would decrease. Value added for most sectors would increase in both short and long run. In the overall, Thailand would suffer a net loss from the negotiations. The government should consider revising the list of the items for the negotiations.