Interprovincial migration in China, 1985-2005: a gravity modeling approach

This paper tries to identify the characters that might affect interprovincial migrants' decisions and examine how and why the influence of these characters changed over time individually and synthetically in China during 1985-2005. We have investigated six types of factors, namely, distance, population density, income, employment structure, house price, and migration stock. In addition, we apply the identified factors with a multiple stepwise regression model to a longitudinal dataset, which consists of interprovincial migration flows over the last two decades in China. It is found that different factors have disparate impacts on migration in China, and they can be decomposed into push force in origin area and pull force in destination area. Factors shaping China's interprovincial migration have shifted from traditional factors such as distance to economic factors such as income and employment structure. This paper suggests that more attention should be paid to obtain detailed migration data with spatial information and develop applicable models for migration processes. Our analysis provides references for development planners and policymakers to develop sound population policies to achieve regional sustainable development in China.