Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea

被引：0
|
作者：
Baoqiang Tian [1 ,2 ]
Ke Fan [3 ]
机构：
[1] Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences
[2] Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
[3] School of Atmospheric Science,Sun Yat-sen University,and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
来源：
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2024年 / 17卷 / 02期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
早期消融开始日期; 白令海; 季节性海冰; 波弗特高压; 统计预测模型;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
P731.15 [海冰];
学科分类号：
0707 ;
摘要：
基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率.1月波弗特高压可以通过海气相互作用影响白令海地区海温异常,该海温异常能够从1月持续到3月,进而影响白令海EMO.11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压与11月至次年2月北太平洋中纬度东部海温密切相关.伴随着北太平洋中纬度东部冷海温异常的出现,白令海地区会出现暖海温异常,进而导致白令海海冰范围减少,EMO较晚.1月北极偶极子异常是11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率影响次年白令海EMO的桥梁之一.1981-2022年的交叉检验结果表明:统计模型对白令海EMO具有较好的预测能力,预测与观测的EMO之间时间相关系数达到了0.45,超过了99%的置信水平.统计模型对白令海EMO正常年份和异常年份的预测准确率分别为60%和41%.
引用
收藏
页码：15 / 20
页数：6
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