Change in the precipitation intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon projected by CMIP3 models

Future change in precipitation intensity of East Asian summer monsoon is investigated using the present-day climate simulations (1991–2000) and the future climate simulations (2091–2100, A1B emission scenario) by the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) models. Target period is the month from June to July which is the main part of the rainy season over Japan and Korea. In the present-day climate simulations, we have quantitatively evaluated model’s reproducibility of precipitation climatology and Simple Daily precipitation Intensity Index (SDII), using skill S proposed by Taylor (J Geophys Res 106:7183–7192, 2001). Models with higher reproducibility of precipitation climatology tend to show higher reproducibility of precipitation intensity. In the future climate simulations, simple Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) average using all models show the increase of precipitation intensity over almost all regions of East Asia. Introduction of S as weighting factor does not make large difference in the geographical distribution of precipitation intensity change. In case of MME using five best models, the geographical pattern of precipitation intensity change is qualitatively similar to that using all models, but the local magnitude of changes are much affected by the best model. In order to interpret future change in precipitation climatology and SDII, we have calculated change in vertically integrated horizontal transport of moisture. Changes in precipitation climatology and SDII can be interpreted as the moisture convergence change associated with change in horizontal transport of moisture. Large moisture convergence was found due to either intensification or weakening of subtropical high depending on models.