Noninvasive radiomic analysis of enhanced CT predicts CTLA4 expression and prognosis in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Developing a radiomic model to predict CTLA4 expression levels and assessing its prognostic accuracy for patients. Medical imaging data were sourced from the TCIA database, while transcriptome sequencing data were derived from the TCGA database. We utilized a linear kernel SVM algorithm to develop a radiomic model for predicting CTLA4 gene expression. We then assessed the model’s clinical relevance using survival and Cox regression analyses. Performance evaluations of the model were illustrated through ROC, PR, calibration, and decision curves. (1) Bioinformatics analysis: Kaplan–Meier curves indicated that increased CTLA4 expression correlates with enhanced overall survival (OS) (p < 0.001). Both univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that high CTLA4 expression served as a protective factor for OS (HR = 0.562, 95% CI 0.427–0.741, p < 0.001). (2) Radiomics evaluation: the ROC curve demonstrated that the AUC for the SVM radiomics model was 0.766 in the training set and 0.742 in the validation set. The calibration curve affirmed that the model's prediction probability for high gene expression aligns with the actual outcomes. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated that our model boasts robust clinical applicability. CTLA4 expression level serves as an independent prognostic factor for HNSCCs. Using enhanced CT images, the SVM radiomic model effectively predicts CTLA4 expression levels. As a result, this model offers strong prognostic insights for HNSCCs, guiding precise diagnosis, treatment, and assisting in clinical decision-making.