Optimal Central Bank Conservativeness in an Open Economy

This paper develops a graphical method to determinethe optimal degree of central bank conservativeness inan open economy. Unlike Rogoff (1985a), the upper andlower bounds of the interval containing the optimaldegree of conservativeness are expressed in terms ofthe structural parameters of the model. It is shownthat optimal central bank conservativeness is higher,the higher the natural rate of unemployment, thegreater the benefits of unanticipated inflation, theless inflation-averse society, the smaller thevariance of productivity shocks, the smaller realexchange rate variability and the smaller the opennessof the economy. These propositions are tested fornineteen industrial countries for the period1960–1993. In testing the model we employ a latentvariables method (LISREL) in order to distinguishbetween actual and optimal monetary regimes.