Modeling of food security and ecological footprint of coastal zone of Bangladesh

This paper presents a computer model of integrated management of coastal zones of Bangladesh. This model predicts that expanding shrimp aquaculture industry ensures high food security at upazila levels with increasing environmental degradation. The model also predicts that if shrimp aquaculture industry continues to boom from the present status to super intensive shrimp aquaculture, a collapse of the shrimp aquaculture industry will ultimately occur turning shrimp aquaculture land neither suitable for shrimp culture nor crop production. The control of growth of the shrimp production intensity stabilizes the system at least in the short run. The control of population and growth of the shrimp production intensity should be considered for stabilization of the system in the long run. The sustainable development of the coastal zone of Bangladesh in the long run without control of both the growth of shrimp production intensity and the population will remain mere dream. It is now high time to design an integrated management system for the coastal zones of Bangladesh for sustainable development. This model can be used to assist the policy planners to assess different policy issues and to design a policy for sustainable development of the coastal zones of Bangladesh. The boost up of coastal agriculture and restriction on rapid growth of shrimp culture and its intensity to reduce ecological footprints are two pathways for sustainable development of food security in the coastal zones of Bangladesh. This study also examines the short-term and long-term policy options for sustainable food security. © 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.