Quantifying ecosystem service mismatches for land use planning: spatial-temporal characteristics and novel approach—a case study in Jiangsu Province, China

Land use and land cover changes associated with urbanization have had a significant influence on ecosystem services (ESs), but previous studies have insufficiently focused on the relationships between ES supply and demand; these relationships are seldom considered in the science-policy frameworks of land use planning. In this study, a specific supply-demand indicator was constructed to measure ES supply and demand and their disparity across multiple scales in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2018. High spatial heterogeneity and mismatches of ES supply and demand were found in water yield, grain production, carbon sequestration, soil conservation, heat regulation, and recreation services. At provincial scale, the supplies of carbon sequestration and heat regulation services were smaller than their demands. At the 1-km2 grid scale, the ES supply and demand mismatches in urban areas were more serious than those in surrounding areas, especially for carbon sequestration and recreation services. Five ES supply-demand risk zones were identified based on the current status and trends of all ES supply and demand. Southern Jiangsu generally had high risks of ES mismatch, which should be reduced by strategic planning. Constructing the ES supply-demand indicator is a novel practice that assists in evaluating environmental issues and integrating them into further development decisions. This paper suggests that governments should reduce ES mismatches with reference to local conditions (economic development, industrial type, and ecological carrying capacity) and the actual situation of ES supply and demand.