Diffusing capacity as an independent predictor of acute exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

A weak correlation between diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and emphysema has been reported. This study investigated whether impaired DLCO in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased risk of acute exacerbation independent of the presence or extent of emphysema. This retrospective cohort study included patients with COPD between January 2004 and December 2019. The participants were divided into four groups based on visually detected emphysema and impaired DLCO. Among 597 patients with COPD, 8.5% had no emphysema and impaired DLCO whereas 36.3% had emphysema without impaired DLCO. Among the four groups, patients with impaired DLCO and emphysema showed a higher risk of moderate-to-severe or severe exacerbation than those with normal DLCO. Impaired DLCO was an independent risk factor for severe exacerbation (hazard ratio, 1.524 [95% confidence interval 1.121-2.072]), whereas the presence of emphysema was not. The risk of moderate-to-severe or severe exacerbation increases with the severity of impaired DLCO. After propensity-score matching for the extent of emphysema, impaired DLCO was significantly associated with a higher risk of moderate-to-severe (p = 0.041) or severe exacerbation (p = 0.020). In patients with COPD and heterogeneous parenchymal abnormalities, DLCO can be considered an independent biomarker of acute exacerbation.