Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on public bus occupancy and real-world tailpipe emissions of gaseous pollutants per passenger kilometer traveled

Public buses typically have less emission per passenger kilometer traveled (PKT) than private cars and motorcycles, and the emission benefit of public buses increases with ridership. However, the drop in public bus usage during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic could lead to an increase in air pollutant emissions per PKT, making the emission benefits of public buses questionable. This study investigated the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on public bus occupancy rates in Taichung City, Taiwan, and also compared real-world emissions per PKT of carbon monoxide (CO), total hydrocarbons (THC), nitric oxide (NO), and carbon dioxide (CO2) of a public bus before and during the pandemic. Mean bus occupancy rates were 11–25% on different bus routes before the pandemic, indicating that only a fourth or less of the bus passenger capacity was utilized. During the pandemic, mean bus occupancy rates dropped to 4–15%. Moreover, the public bus was less polluting based on CO and THC emissions than the car and motorcycle, even at the low passenger occupancy rates observed during the pandemic. However, NO and CO2 emissions per PKT of the bus were remarkably higher during the pandemic than those of the car and motorcycle. Furthermore, we estimated the break-even passenger occupancy rate for buses as 15%, which was the minimum threshold occupancy rate below which the buses would be more polluting than cars and motorcycles in terms of CO, THC, and CO2 emissions per PKT. Our findings will help transport management authorities and policymakers to optimize bus route designs and frequencies and implement anti-pandemic measures to maximize the environmental benefits of the public bus transit systems.