Mitigating the rate and extent of global warming: An editorial essay

被引:12
|
作者
Lenton T.M. [1 ]
Cannell M.G.R. [1 ]
机构
[1] Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh Research Station, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, Bush Estate
关键词
Carbon monoxide - Fossil fuels - Mathematical models - Particulate emissions - Sensitivity analysis;
D O I
10.1023/A:1017483501347
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
Mitigation, in the sense of slowing the rate of CO2 emission, can reduce the rate of rise of CO2 and global warming and limit peak CO2 concentration and global warming. However, it will have little effect on the near steady state CO2 concentration and corresponding global warming achieved on a millennial timescale once emissions are negligible and the added carbon has been distributed between the ocean, atmosphere and land. Using a simple model with mid-range climate sensitivity, we estimate that the maximum rate of global warming can be limited to <0.2°C/decade by limiting the rate of increase in fossil fuel emissions this century to <0.03 GtC/yr/yr. However, regardless of the emissions pathway, if the known fossil fuel resource of ∼4000 GtC is emitted, CO2 will reach ∼1000 ppmv and the Earth will be warmed by >5°C by the end of the millennium. The more carbon emitted, the greater the fraction that remains in the atmosphere, because of positive feedbacks in the carbon cycle-climate system. Less carbon must be emitted to lessen eventual warming. Early consideration should therefore be given to leaving a fraction of fossil carbon unused, and/or to carbon capture and storage.
引用
收藏
页码:255 / 262
页数:7
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [31] Global warming: Risk perception and risk-mitigating behavior in Japan
    Ohe M.
    Ikeda S.
    [J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2005, 10 (2) : 221 - 236
  • [32] Uncertainties in global climate change estimates - An editorial essay
    PateCornell, E
    [J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 1996, 33 (02) : 145 - 149
  • [33] Editorial: Global warming - Mining industry's responsibilities
    [J]. Journal of Mines, Metals and Fuels, 2009, 57 (08):
  • [34] Editorial: Physiological Impacts of Global Warming in Aquatic Organisms
    Fernandez, I.
    Mozanzadeh, M. T.
    Hao, Y.
    Gisbert, E.
    [J]. FRONTIERS IN PHYSIOLOGY, 2022, 13
  • [35] ECONOMIC-ASPECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING - EDITORIAL NOTE
    GREENAWAY, D
    [J]. ECONOMIC JOURNAL, 1991, 101 (407): : 902 - 903
  • [36] Impact of global warming rate on permafrost degradation
    Demchenko, P. F.
    Eliseev, A. V.
    Arzhanov, M. M.
    Mokhov, I. I.
    [J]. IZVESTIYA ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PHYSICS, 2006, 42 (01) : 32 - 39
  • [37] Sulfate aerosols drive global warming rate
    Kemsley, Jyllian
    [J]. CHEMICAL & ENGINEERING NEWS, 2016, 94 (26) : 6 - 6
  • [38] Impact of global warming rate on permafrost degradation
    P. F. Demchenko
    A. V. Eliseev
    M. M. Arzhanov
    I. I. Mokhov
    [J]. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2006, 42 : 32 - 39
  • [39] To what extent can cirrus cloud seeding counteract global warming?
    Gasparini, Blaz
    McGraw, Zachary
    Storelvmo, Trude
    Lohmann, Ulrike
    [J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2020, 15 (05):