Estimation of changes in energy consumption for heat supply due to interannual temperature variability in the south of the Ukraine

The influence of low-frequency variability of average over the heating season air temperature on population demands in heat supply is considered. Based on monthly mean temperature values for the period from 1882 to 1999, standard deviations σe in distributions of energy consumption probability for heating in relative units were estimated; frequency of realization of different values of energy consumption for standard intervals was calculated. It is shown that values of σe = 9.5% are characteristic of the Ukrainian south. In the last ten-year periods, the required energy consumption for energy supply more than once exceeded the mean values by more than 2σe. A conclusion is made that designed power-generating units of the HPP (heat and power plant) and required fuel reserves for the region should be calculated based on the possible load that is 20% above average demands in fuel.