Climate change in Brazilian agriculture: vulnerability and adaptation assessment

The agricultural sector is essential for economic growth, especially for the poor in developing countries. This study investigated the degree of susceptibility, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity of agricultural establishments in Brazil to assess their vulnerability to climate change. Different databases were used, relating socio-environmental, economic, and demographic characteristics. The means of susceptibility, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity were 48%, 35%, and 51% in Brazilian municipalities. North and Northeast are the most vulnerable regions, while South is the least one. Looking how vulnerability behave across biomes, Amazônia, Pantanal, Caatinga, Cerrado, and Mata Atlântica present vulnerability index higher than 50%. Regarding whether determinants, the temperature is related to higher levels of vulnerability and more precipitation with lower levels. Agricultural policies to reduce susceptibility and increase coping and adaptation capacities are necessary to reduce the vulnerability of farming establishments in the Brazilian regions studied. We provided here a guide showing more vulnerable areas and biomes for further action.