Prediction of the suitable distribution of Eucalyptus grandis in China and its responses to climate change

Assessment of potentially suitable geographic areas in China and their response to climate change can provide a reference for sustainable development of Eucalyptus grandis plantations. Under current and future conditions, the potentially suitable areas for this species were predicted using MaxEnt modelling from known successful plantings of E. grandis in China. The dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of E. grandis and ecological similarities between the species’ natural distribution in Australia and the suitable areas in China were analysed. Results show that the majority of the highly suitable areas identified for E. grandis in China are concentrated in the Sichuan Basin and southeastern hilly regions. Under future climate scenarios, the most suitable area for E. grandis is expected to increase through to the 2070s. The distribution of suitable areas in the Sichuan Basin are predicted to expand eastward to lower elevations, and suitable areas in China’s southeastern hilly regions would move to areas experiencing high solar radiation and lower seasonal temperature variances. The dominant ecological factors affecting the distribution of E. grandis were found to be: solar radiation, altitude, seasonal temperature and precipitation variance, maximum temperature of the warmest month, annual mean temperature, slope, isothermality, soil available water content, precipitation in the driest quarter and mean diurnal temperature range. Collectively, these factors account for over 85.1% of the variation in suitable areas. Compared with the species’ natural distribution in Australia, suitable areas in China feature higher precipitations during the driest quarters; a condition favourable to rapid growth of E. grandis.