The impact of forest to urban land conversion on streamflow, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and total organic carbon inputs to the converse reservoir, Southern Alabama, USA

High total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in Converse Reservoir, a water source for Mobile, Alabama, have concerned water treatment officials due to the potential for disinfection byproduct (DBP) formation. TOC reacts with chlorine during drinking water treatment to form DBPs. This study evaluated how increased urbanization can alter watershed-derived total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) and TOC inputs to the Converse Reservoir. Converse Watershed, on the urban fringe of Mobile, is projected to undergo urbanization increasing watershed urban land from 3% in 1992 to 22% urban land by 2020. A pre-urbanization scenario using 1992 land cover was coupled with 2020 projections of land use. The Loading Simulation Program C++ watershed model was used to evaluate changes in nutrient concentrations (mg L−1) and loads (kg) to Converse Reservoir. Urban and suburban growth of 52 km2 simulated from 1991 to 2005 (15 year) caused overall TN and TP loads to increase by 109 and 62%, respectively. Simulated urban growth generally increased monthly flows by 15%, but resulted in lower streamflows (2.9%) during drought months. Results indicate that post-urbanization median TN and TP concentrations were 59 and 66% higher than corresponding pre-urbanization concentrations, whereas TOC concentrations were 16% lower. An increase in urban flow caused TOC loads to increase by 26%, despite lower post-urbanization TOC concentrations.