The effects of climate change on African agricultural productivity growth revisited

This paper analyzes the effects of climate change on African agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth and test whether agricultural TFP levels are converging in the region. The study uses cross-country balanced panel data covering 35 countries from 1981 to 2010 and a technological catching-up model based on the Ricardian analysis estimated by Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) regression. Historical country-wide rainfall and temperature are climate factors included in the model. Education, capital intensity, and arable land equipped with irrigation are other potential confounding variables in the regression. The empirical results show that levels of African agricultural TFP are converging over time, though the rate of convergence appears relatively slow in the region. We also find that rain significantly increases agricultural TFP growth, but temperature does not affect the study’s African agricultural TFP growth. Other results show that education, capital intensity, and arable land equipped with irrigation significantly increased agricultural TFP growth.