Determining the Required Training Capacity Within a Military Establishment

We address the problem of deciding how many positions to set aside for military recruits undergoing training. Within a cap on the total number of military members, we vary the ratio between positions allocated to the training pipeline versus those required in the trained effective establishment. This is done with the goal of determining the extent to which given ratios are sustainable. We use a Markovian model of the training pipeline, with parameters derived from historical personnel data. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we predict how often a given ratio allows the required trained force to be fully generated, as well as the surplus of trained personnel, it is expected to generate. We extend our previous work in this area by considering an alternative Human Resources policy that uncaps the training pipeline. Our modelling results have informed ongoing initiatives to optimize the force mix and structure of the Canadian Armed Forces. © 2022, Crown.