The Impact of Trade Integration on Business Cycle Co-Movements in Europe

This paper extends our previous research on East Asia to the case of 14 European countries from 1977 to 1999. According to our empirical results, intraindustry trade is again the major channel through which the business cycles of European countries become synchronized. This contrasts with existing studies that found that increased trade itself led to the synchronization of business cycles. Our findings have important implications for the adoption of a currency union, as we expect that the costs of joining a currency union will diminish significantly only when intraindustry trade becomes dominant.