Historical change in coastal sage scrub in southern California, USA in relation to fire frequency and air pollution

Invasions resulting in the transformation of one ecosystem to another are an increasingly widespread phenomenon. While it is clear that these conversions, particularly between grassland and shrubland systems, have severe consequences, it is often less clear which factors are associated with these conversions. We resampled plots from the 1930s (Weislander VTMs) to test whether two widely assumed factors, changes in fire frequency and nitrogen deposition, are associated with the conversion of coastal sage scrublands to exotic grasslands in southern California. Over the 76-year period, coastal sage scrub cover declined by 49%, being replaced predominantly by exotic grassland species. Grassland encroachment was positively correlated with increased fire frequency and, in areas with low fire frequencies, air pollution (percent fossil carbon as indicated by ∂14C, likely correlated with nitrogen deposition). We conclude that increases in fire frequency and air pollution over the last several decades in southern California may have facilitated the conversion of coastal sage shrubland to exotic grassland systems.