Impact of Climate Change on Water Transfer Scale of Inter-basin Water Diversion Project

Future climate change will alter regional hydrometeorological conditions, which poses significant risks to the operation of inter-basin water diversion projects in the future. Most previous studies focused on adaptive operations under climate change. Few studies examined how to best manage risks and quantify the effect of climate change on objective losses. This paper intends to present a systematic approach for runoff prediction, impact analysis on objectives, and risk assessment under climate models. The Xin’AnJiang hydrological model, single-objective and multi-objective reservoir operation models, and risk assessment model of multiple schemes are integrated into this approach. Taking the inter-basin water diversion project from Hanjiang to Weihe River as a case, the study has made three contributions. First, the negative impacts of climate change on water transfer, net power generation, and transformation ratio between them are quantified. Second, the difference in water transfer scale between single-objective and multi-objective caused by climate change is analyzed. Third, to recommend scheduling schemes balancing benefits and risks and coping strategies to help policymakers mitigate the inevitable harmful effect of climate change. Consequently, it is extremely necessary to prepare to deal with the risks of insufficient water transfer and nip them in the bud.