Severe Wind Hazard Assessment using Monte Carlo Simulation

A Monte Carlo-based model to assess severe wind hazard is presented. Synthetic wind datasets for hazard analysis have been generated using Monte Carlo simulation of the physics of severe wind gust generation, to overcome the limitations of data-based statistical models. These statistical models consider extreme wind gust speeds to calculate the average probability of exceedance of a given wind speed in a single year (return period), and hence the return period is calculated using extreme value distributions. Monte Carlo wind hazard results are shown to be comparable to those produced by data-based statistical methods. They are similar to the results reported by Holmes (Australian Journal of Structural Engineering 4(1):29–40, 2002) and also to the prescribed wind gust speeds of the Australian/NZ standards for wind loading of structures in Region A (non-cyclonic regions) of Australia (AS/NZS 1170.2 2002).