Shoreline Changes Analysis and Forecast Using Digital Shoreline Assessment System 5.0: Evidences from Parts of East Coast of India

Shoreline change analysis is examined for around 140 km coastal belt between Paradip port in the southern and Dhamra port in the northeastern parts of Odisha using DSAS 5.0. The study area is reported of being through the severe landward movement of the sea. To examine this, multispectral satellite images obtained from 1973 to 2020 are taken into account. The vector data generated are fed into the DSAS application to figure out the rate of changes in the position of the shoreline. DSAS suggested statistical methods, i.e. Shoreline Change Envelope, Net Shoreline Movement, End Point Rate, Linear Regression Rate, and Weighted Linear Regression, are used for calculating the rate of change in shoreline positions. Also with the help of “beta forecasting”, the future shoreline positions for the period between the years 2030 and 2040 are forecasted. The mean change rate, average seaward gain, and average landward gain are found to be 1.236, 10.10, and 12.42 m/year, respectively. The highest seaward movement is measured as 1843.06 m and the highest landward movement is at 1547.5 m in the study area. The shoreline position is shifted up in an average of 286.03 m in 2/3rd (67.3%) cases of transects, where the maximum shift is 1843.06 m and the minimum being 11.58 m. The beta forecasting result is validated by collating satellite image Landsat 8 (acquired on 25.12.2020) and forecasted shoreline 2020. The results indicated that the shoreline has shifted up to 2 km from 1971 to 2019 atleast 2/3rd positions. This is such a serious concern and alerts with a strong warning of rapid shoreline changes. It further emphasizes the need for conservation and management of this coastal belt to protect coastal biodiversity.