A correlative approach, combining energy consumption, urbanization and GDP, for modeling and forecasting Morocco's residential energy consumption

The economic and demographic development of Morocco in the last few years has led to significant residential energy consumption (REC). Thus, to maintain this development, energy planning should be carried out in a comprehensive and precise manner. Using data from 1990–2013, two sets of models have been developed to forecast Morocco’s residential energy demand and their results were compared: one used a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique and the other has relied on a correlative approach. The findings show that correlative models based on a link of REC to GDP and urbanization rate outperforms MLR models, providing more reliable and accurate results in terms of prediction errors during the test period. Forecasted results show that Moroccan residential energy needs will increase by 70%. In 2030, Morocco will consume around 6670 ktoe of energy in residential sector, more precisely, 1937, 4501 and 233 ktoe of electricity, butane and biomass, respectively. In fact, electricity is the final energy which will have the higher increase between 2016 and 2030 (approximately 115%).