Theoretical and empirical analyses on the factors affecting carbon emissions: case of Zhejiang Province, China

Carbon emission reduction is a necessary task for each country to address the severe challenges arising from global warming. The government of the USA formally launched legal proceedings to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change in November 2019, which has posed a significant challenge for the international community to tackle climate change together. While with the deepening of globalization, we should re-examine traditional understanding of factors influencing carbon emissions. This research has a theoretical analysis and establishes the motion trajectory of carbon emissions. The motion trajectory model is original design, and derivation takes the innovation and scientific contributions in the logic understand of the factors affecting carbon emissions. Meanwhile, taking an outward-looking, major economic province in China (Zhejiang Province) as an example, we empirically study the influencing factors of carbon emissions. Based on time series data of Zhejiang province from 1990 through 2020, the methods such as linear regression, ARDL model analysis, vector autoregression (VAR) analysis, and variance decomposition were used to check the motion trajectory model theories. The empirical results show that there is a long-run relationship between AGDP, TECH, TRADE, KL, and AC, while in the short-run, the effect of the TRADE is elastic and positively significant, the effect of the KL is elastic but nonsignificant, and AC has hysteresis effect on its own with negatively significant. It is concluded that the upgrading of the industrial structure is essential to break the solidified energy consumption mode. On this basis, Zhejiang Province is suggested to strengthen her development, popularization, and utilization of new energies, vigorously promote the development of the digital economy, and be fully involved in the regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta.