Geo-environmental and socioeconomic determinants of poverty in China: an empirical analysis based on stratified poverty theory

According to the stratified poverty theory, poverty includes individual (people) and regional (place) poverty. Understanding the interaction mechanism between individual poverty and regional poverty is crucial to achieving the UN goal of poverty eradication by 2030. However, at present, the relevant empirical research is still limited by the availability of data. To fill this important gap, based on the multi-source data of poverty census, geo-environmental and socio-economic data of China’s 1587 counties in 2013, we used exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial econometric models (spatial-lag and spatial-error model) to identify determinants of individual poverty and regional poverty in this county. Results show that the spatial distribution of the rural poor in China had strong spatial dependence (Global Moran’s I = 0.574). There was a high degree of spatial overlap between individual poverty and regional poverty. The poverty-causing factors were complex and varied across regions and individuals. Disease of family members was the leading factor driving rural areas in Northeast, Central, and Southwest China. Northeast China was mainly affected by the illness and lack of labor skills of family members. The complex terrain conditions were the determinants driving rural poverty in most areas of China. Improved transportation can greatly reduce rural poverty. Geographical isolation or lack of geographical capital caused by complex terrain conditions, backward transportation, and regional closure promoted regional poverty. In turn, regional poverty-causing factors further restricted the improvement of rural residents’ self-development ability and aggravated individual poverty. Our findings indicate that individual poverty and regional poverty have different poverty-causing mechanisms and poverty reduction priorities. Effective poverty reduction strategies require the coordinated promotion of individual and regional poverty reduction. The reduction of individual poverty should focus on enhancing the livelihood capital of the poor through differentiated policy intervention, while regional poverty alleviation should focus on creating a favorable development environment by increasing infrastructure investment and public service supply.