On summing the components of radiative forcing of climate change

被引：0
|
作者：
O. Boucher
J. Haywood
机构：
[1] Laboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique,
[2] U.F.R. de Physique,undefined
[3] Bâtiment P5,undefined
[4] Université des Sciences et Technologies de Lille,undefined
[5] 59655 Villeneuve d'Ascq Cedex,undefined
[6] France. On sabbatical leave at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry,undefined
[7] Mainz,undefined
[8] Germany E-mail: boucher@loa.univ-lille1.fr,undefined
[9] Meteorological Office,undefined
[10] London Road,undefined
[11] Bracknell,undefined
[12] UK,undefined
来源：
Climate Dynamics | 2001年 / 18卷
关键词：
Climate Change; Distribution Function; Probability Distribution; Probability Distribution Function; Potential Influence;
D O I：
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中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
 Radiative forcing is a useful concept in determining the potential influence of a particular mechanism of climate change. However, due to the increased number of forcing agents identified over the past decade, the total radiative forcing is difficult to assess. By assigning a range of probability distribution functions to the individual radiative forcings and using a Monte-Carlo approach, we estimate the total radiative forcing since pre-industrial times including all quantitative radiative forcing estimates to date. The resulting total radiative forcing has a 75–97% probability of being positive (or similarly a 3–25% probability of being negative), with mean radiative forcing ranging from +0.68 to +1.34 W m−2, and median radiative forcing ranging from +0.94 to +1.39 W m−2.
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页码：297 / 302
页数：5
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