An integrated indicator framework for spatial assessment of industrial and social vulnerability to indirect disaster losses

The focus of this study is on multi-dimensional vulnerability of regions to indirect disaster losses. An integrated indicator framework has been developed which captures the multi-layered vulnerability drivers in industrial production systems and also accounts for the social fragilities and coping capacities in communities. By combining industrial vulnerability and social vulnerability spatially, and proposing a methodology to account between their interactions, the total vulnerability to indirect risks of regions is revealed. The outcome of the framework is a ranking of industrial sectors and geographic areas according to their vulnerability against indirect losses. It answers the question which of the two affected regions is in a better position to cope with indirect consequences in a disaster. Indicators provide a flexible framework for the comparison and integration of different data types and allow the combination of social as well as economic aspects. Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology was applied to analyze direct and indirect dependencies within the selected social and industrial vulnerability indicators. The hierarchical indicator system has been implemented in a software system based on multi-criteria decision theory (MCDA) with an interactive interface to take into account a broader range of expert judgement. The methodology was applied in a case study in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg in Germany for 16 different industrial sectors. The approach helps to identify particular vulnerable processes and points out where mitigation measures could be implemented most effectively.